Monday 5 January 2015

Quite Start For Big week for the US expected


 The market has quite heavily priced in the adoption of quantitative easing from the ECB, which it has been rumoured to be preparing for this month’s meeting. However, with Syriza leading the polls which may cause issues around its membership of the currency block and therefore the ECBs willingness to buy its bonds, the central bank may be forced to rethink its plans and either exclude Greece or opt for some other form of stimulus, which I imagine the markets wouldn’t take to as well.UK is also becoming increasingly viewed by investors as one to steer clear of with a general election due later this year which is simply too close to call, a vote on EU membership in the pipeline if the Conservatives remain in power and the economy showing signs of broad based cooling following a strong 18-month run.

The only thing that’s supported the currency recently has been the fact that the Bank of England is likely to be one of the first major central banks to raise interest rates but even this now looks unlikely until next year.He construction PMI this morning providing further evidence of the cooling in the economy, falling to 57.6 from 59.4, much larger than the expected drop to 59. Third consecutive month that we’ve seen a decline in the number although we should take a couple of things into consideration with this. Firstly, a decline in construction activity in the winter months is not that uncommon. Secondly, 57.6 is still a very good reading and points to continued strong growth in the sector which should not be sniffed at.US session is looking a little quieter today but things will pick up as the week goes on. Between PMI readings tomorrow, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday and the jobs report on Friday, it’s not going to be a straightforward first week for investors although it should set things up nicely for the year.

A quiet start to the week for the US despite the return of many traders following the new year break as a lack of economic data or events leaves investors looking for direction elsewhere.Europe that’s guiding investors with snap Greek elections later this month potentially setting a precedent for elections in other austerity stricken countries this year, with the anti-austerity Syriza party currently leading in the polls. Greek exit won’t be as catastrophic as it would have been a few years ago, it’s certainly undesirable and should Syriza rise to power, the eurozone faces the tough task of doing what it can to keep Greece in the union while not incentivising other countries to vote in parties of similar mindset. For this reason, it’s going to be a massive year for the eurozone. ECB faces a tough choice when it meets in a couple of weeks in the first of its now 6-weekly meetings.

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